World Bank: Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion

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The two very large earthquakes of February 6 caused an estimated $34.2 billion in direct physical damages in Türkiye according to a World Bank rapid damage assessment report released yesterday (February 27).

This amount is the equivalent of 4% of the country's 2021 GDP.

The report also acknowledges that recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially twice as large, and that GDP losses associated with economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquakes.

Continued aftershocks will also likely add to this damage estimate over time, says the report. 

Region with high poverty and half Syrian refugee population

The February 6 earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude, followed by more than 7,500 aftershocks and two additional earthquakes, have resulted in the largest such disaster to hit the country in over 80 years, and have inflicted the heaviest damage in 11 provinces in southern Türkiye.

These regions have some of the highest poverty rates in Türkiye and also host more than 1.7 million Syrian refugees, which is almost 50% of the total Syrian refugee population in Türkiye.

1.25 million temporarily homeless

The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report, which focuses on the direct physical damages in Türkiye, also estimates that 1.25 million people have been rendered temporarily homeless due to moderate to severe damage or complete building collapse. The report also highlights that 81% of the estimated damages occurred in Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Gaziantep, Malatya and Adıyaman provinces, which are home to around 6.45 million people (around 7.4% of the total population of Türkiye).

Direct damages to residential buildings account for 53% ($18 billion) of the total damage, with 28% of damage ($9.7 billion) in non-residential buildings (e.g., health facilities, schools, government buildings, and private sector buildings), and 19% of damage ($6.4 billion) related to infrastructure (e.g., roads, power, water supply).

Assessments are still ongoing, and given ongoing uncertainty and aftershocks, such as the magnitude 6.3 earthquake on February 20, 2023 in Hatay province, damage estimates may increase further.

A separate GRADE Report of the World Bank for Syria in relation to the February 6 earthquakes is scheduled for release today.

February 6 earthquakes

On February 6, two earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.7 and 7.6 struck the southern city of Maraş. The first quake in the Pazarcık district at 4.17 a.m. was followed by the second one in Elbistan about nine hours later.

The quakes affected 11 cities in Türkiye's south and southeast, as well as Syria's northern parts.

The official death toll from the quakes stands at over 44,000 and is expected to increase further, as over 160,000 buildings were destroyed or severely damaged, according to government figures.

Nearly two million people have been displaced due to the earthquakes. (AÖ/PE)