'AKP is no more a good partner for the US'

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With 12 days left to the dual presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, the election results that should be expected is on both national and international agenda. 

Kumru Toktamış, a researcher and author residing in the USA talked to bianet about the elections and the USA-Turkey relations. 

The USA is expecting a change in Turkey

Toktamış said that the US government and media is expecting a government change in Turkey for long. "The Biden administration has not refrained from isolating their NATO alliance partner Erdoğan even in the most diplomatic events.

For instance the only NATO country leader not invited to an emergency meeting held in the hotel room of Biden at one point of the G-20 meeting in Indonesia last November was Erdoğan. I do not know how far this was reflected in the press in Turkey but Erdoğan had also avoided the issue saying it is not something important." 

What is the reason for distrust in Erdoğan government?

Reminding that the blocking of the NATO membership of Sweden is not something that bothers only the US, Toktamış told bianet, "However it seems to me that the reason for the distrust in Erdoğan government is not a clear difference of opinion. The reason is that the equilibrium policies that the Erdoğan government follows seem to be very pragmatic and even "transactional."

Reciprocality is of course important in diplomacy, but the expectation of the Erdoğan government for reciprocity sometimes, or maybe always, almost a version of corruption, overpressing the limits of diplomacy."

Do they call Kılıçdaroğlu "the new partner?"

Toktamış thinks that many leaders in the history of the Middle East have stabilized their relations with the powerful states through such equilibrium policies, and secured their positions and importance this way,

However, she also says,"But since it is not foreseeable where and which step the Erdoğan government will take, AKP is no more a good partner to cooperate with for the US. 

But I guess they do not trust the opposition parties very much either. Although there is some lobbying work trying to make Kılıçdaroğlu acceptable, I never came up with an active expression of a wish for a "new partner." 

"There is no one to stand behind Erdoğan"

Toktamış underlines that there is a widespread misperception in Turkey as if "there is a monolithic decision maker for the US foreign policy."

"Whereas, there are pro-Arab elements in the US foreign policy institutions, as well as pro-Israel elements. However, there is not many left to stand behind Erdoğan anymore. But there are still some who push for a pro-Erdoğan policy in Congress. There are such elements within the Democrat Party, as well as pro-Trump circles. However the Biden administration remains distant to those who are pro-Erdoğan in their party," she says. 

What kind of administration US wants to deal with?

"Of course, there is the Syria policy problem, which is more important than NATO. For long years, the US Government was conflicting with itself on this issue. For instance, while Pentagon was supporting the government of Turkey, the CIA was pushing for a pro-Kurds position.

It is as if there is no such conflict left now. The US Government wants a partner that they surely know will act this or that way in relation to both Syria and Ukraine. For long, Erdoğan has not been such a partner. Of course, it will only be very wrong and a crude understanding to draw a conclusion to say "Erdoğan is such an anti-imperialist leader." It is not always a positive development when a partner is unbounded.

"Erdoğan is not a respected world leader since 2016"

"We are doing academic studies on the post-Erdoğan period for many years now. However, such studies remain only academic and even speculative. We have not met any politician who shows any interest in these until now. 

"The US believes that Kılıçdaroğlu will act more reasonably on the deadlock in NATO, however, no one is sure if he will have a clear enough position on Syria." 

"The only thing that is clear is that there is hope that Kılıçdaroğlu will take correct steps on the issues of human rights, freedom of expression, and the similar. The US is of course aware of the mobilization of the opposition, its determination, and passion. However, no one is sure how much of this will be reflected in the election results. 

Even if there are widespread electoral fraud, there is nothing that the USA can do in the end. Erdoğan is no more a respected world leader since 2016 already. He is a headache for the USA in Syria and in Ukraine mostly. But which guarantees can Kılıçdaroğlu give the US and NATO that he will not be a headache?

"Kılıçdaroğlu may not be dependable in Syria"

Toktamış also evaluated a possible change after the elections. She said, "The US is expecting Kılıçdaroğlu to be more exact on NATO, to stand more clearly against Russia on the issue of Ukraine, and to continue the firm position against Assad in Syria.

The Economist recently wrote that Kılıçdaroğlu may not be a dependable partner in Syria. The whole world is curious to see if the attitude adopted by AKP until today will also be the state policy of Turkey on all of these issues. In the middle of a puzzle where the variables are multi-sided and complicated, it is difficult to perceive which steps Kılıçdaroğlu and his allies will take in foreign policy. However, they are expected to act differently from the unreliable framework that AKP has created on the issues of NATO, Ukraine, and Syria."

No formed opinion 

Toktamış also commented on the speculations in Turkey lately that there has been an opinion formed in the USA for a post-Erdoğan possibility.

She said, "There are some who lobby in this direction and these circles are trying to make their voices heard at the US Department of State. We will only be able to see how successful they are after the elections. I do not believe that there is an opinion already formed. Especially the article published in the Economist on Syria and Kılıçdaroğlu was the expression of the fact that there are still question marks." (NT/PE)