Turkey elections: Latest polls ahead of second round

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After the unexpected results of the initial round of presidential elections held on May 14, wherein President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured 49.52% of the votes, contradicting the predictions of pollsters who favored Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, numerous polling companies opted not to release their surveys for the runoff to the public.

However, KONDA Research, ASAL Research, and AREA Research released their latest polls on Thursday (May 25). Two indicate incumbent Erdoğan to win on May 28, while one puts oppositional contender Kılıçdaroğlu in the lead.

According to AREA Research's survey with 2,026 respondents from 26 provinces, Kılıçdaroğlu holds 50.6% of the votes, while Erdoğan follows closely with 49.4%. The margin of error reported by the company is +/- 2.18%.

ASAL Research conducted a poll with 2,184 participants from 26 provinces, showing Erdoğan leading with 53.4% of the votes, while Kılıçdaroğlu received 46.6%. The margin of error within a 95% confidence interval is +/- 2.50%.

In KONDA's survey conducted in 34 provinces, encompassing 108 districts, 154 neighborhoods, and villages with 3,607 respondents interviewed face-to-face, Erdoğan garnered 47% of the votes, with Kılıçdaroğlu at 42.2%. The survey revealed that 8.2% of voters remained undecided, while 2.6% stated they would not vote.

After allocating the undecided voters, KONDA's results show Erdoğan leading with 52.7% and Kılıçdaroğlu at 47.3%. The margin of error for these findings is +/- 1.63 within a 95% confidence interval and +/- 2.15 within a 99% confidence interval.

(HA/WM)