"Today's operations will not make the PKK disappear; they will damage it, weaken and deter it. US journalist Aliza Marcus wrote a book entitled "Blood and Belief" after eight years of research, in which she says that it would not be easy to get rid of the PKK, and that it was an organisation which had lost its perspective and had created a fanatic leader cult. Turkey must announce to the Kurdish people that the PKK's cause has no future. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have understood that, even if the government has not, and a broad package must be applied. Operations are one aspect of this package."

This is Prof. Dr. Dogu Ergil's interpretation of the bombings in Northern Iraq.

He continued, "Recently, the PKK has shed blood. The operations will result in a psychological easing of tension. The pressure on the soldiers will decrease. But the problem will not be solved. It has become clear that the issue needs a broader perspective."

"AKP has managed the crisis" 

"In an unexpected manner, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has been able to manipulate the internationalised PKK crisis domestically and abroad. The road to Northern Iraq was blockd by the USA ans by the Kurdish government which has sought the protection of the USA. In Turkey, all war mongerers, including the army and the opposition put pressure on the government to enter the country. This was politically problematic and impossible strategically. It was one of the problems of having a politicised army. [But now] everything has settled again, to the point where the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has called on the Chief of General Staff to resign. The crisis was managed like this."

"The government first agreed with the USA. It brought both Bagdad and the Kurdish government into line. Then it dealt with the objections of the West."

"Operations will not solve the issue" 

"It has become clear that hitting the PKK in Northern Iraq will not solve the PKK problem, that the PKK is a product and extension of the Kurdish question, that there needs to be a wider perspective which includes comprehensive measures besides military ones. Now it seems that there is such a comprehensive package and that other elements will be applied."

Ergil emphasised that what would happen now was important: "Where we will stand tomorrow depends on what we do today. Whether Turkey will become peaceful and state-of-the-art depends on what we do today."

Ergil said that most media reactions to the operations were "emotional": "If you ask me, these reactions may contribute marginally to the solution of the Kurdish question. These operations are an effort to damage rather than destroy the PKK and is belated. There is nothing to be happy about. Are operations necessary? Yes. Will they deliver the desired result? No." (NZ/TK/AG)